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The Intelligence Factor: analysts speak out... again

We know, we know. You've been seeing this regurgitated analyst stuff for months now, and you'd be hard pressed to find something that cites Sony in a good position at this point. Well, unfortunately, DFC Intelligence isn't ready to change that trend.

"Why should anyone even bother reading something from a bunch of researchers outside of the industry anyway," you ask? Actually, DFC has been covering the games biz ever since 1993. They've been around the block a few times, so even if you don't like what you're reading here (and if you're a Sony fan, you won't) it's still just food for thought.

Lots of research and 600 pages later, they've come out with a comprehensive forecast of the industry. What they say is that "two things are clear: 1) the high price of the PlayStation 3 is going to slow overall industry growth, especially for software and 2) if Sony does not change its current strategy for the PS3 the system will probably end up in third place in installed base. Microsoft and Nintendo have been handed that golden opportunity and both companies have a chance to make their systems the market leader."

What's this about software growth and Sony inhibiting it? On the contrary, with their free online platform, Sony could be poised to offer all kinds of commercial and independent (heck, even homebrew) games to a wider audience right out of the box. This could be just as much of a golden opportunity if they play their cards right. As for Blu-ray and the other software medium, we've already heard from one developer that he believes it could make all the difference. So take this analyst report as you will, the rest of us are waiting for November.

[Via Joystiq]

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Reader Comments

(Page 1)

1. The free online model is over-rated in my opinion. Sure, no one wants to pay if they don't have to. But there are consequences. It's like those old free-dialup services from several years ago. The ads were so annoying that it made going online quite unpleasant. With online gaming, free = easier time for hackers/modders:

http://suicideninja.blogspot.com/2006/07/free-online-multiplayer-too-much_03.html

We know it is in Sony's nature to be proprietary. The "opening" of any of their platforms is just not going to happen. They'll slam us with Bluray, UMD, MS Duo, proprietary Linux, and limit our options as much as possible. If it's not provided by Sony then it's simply not acceptable [to them].

I'm hoping, and it's far-fetched, that we can use ANY 2.5" hard drive in the PS3 (as they are suggesting). An even further stretch is hoping we can use our own distribution of Linux instead of their bound-to-be-junk version.

Unfortunately, those things would leaves us with the earlier problems. Opening such options leaves for easy access to homebrewers, modders, hackers, and pirates. Sony isn't going to jump on that so-called opportunity.

Posted at 4:52PM on Jul 19th 2006 by SuicideNinja 2 stars

2. I keep reading the PS3 is $600. Even the Official Playstation Magazine lists it on it's cover as $600.
It is $499 (500 bucks). The hyped up version with HDMI/Wireless, memory card reader, is $600.

If you think about the price it is not that bad.
Base model is $499, Most people will be getting this one.
I won't cause I'm a techno Geek.

Now consider the 360...
Base is $299. Nobody can use that model without a $40 memory card or a $99 Harddrive. The Memory Card option sucks cause it will fill up with Updates, you can't play XBox games or go online without the Harddrive.
Bottomline is that the Xbox360 is $399 end of story.

So if my math is correct, sony is only $100 more.
Plus you get a BluRay Player.
If you add a HD-DVD external drive to the 360 I'll bet that is going to be more than $100. OK now my 360 is getting more expensive than the PS3...
Oh Yeah! Microsoft Charges about $60 a year if you want to play games online. Cha Ching. Sony is going to make Online gaming part of the Standard online package (As it should be). Sony is banking on all of us buying Map Packs, console personalization items, movies, music, etc. to make up the difference at your discretion.

The Difference is Sony has made a higher baseline for the stock model.

Score Card Feature for Feature:
Sony Base model - Harddrive, NextGen Movies(BluRay), Online Play.
$499

XBox360 Premium - Harddrive, NextGen Movies(HDDVD), Online Play.
$399 + $100 minimum + $60/year for Live
$559 + ongoing Live charges.

The 360 is more.
I know cause that's what mine is costing me.
My PS3 will be cheaper than my XBox360 !!!

Posted at 5:30PM on Jul 19th 2006 by Scott Krueger. 0 stars

3. "Sony could be poised to offer all kinds of commercial and independent (heck, even homebrew) games to a wider audience right out of the box."

Are you familiar with something called the PSP?! I think it's fairly obvious how Sony stands on homebrew.

Posted at 6:38PM on Jul 19th 2006 by Chris 0 stars

4. This guy must be new to blogging. I thought we stopped justifying the price about 3 months ago. Same stuff to rebuttal with...(people want the choice of an add-on, you CAN play without a memory option, its most likely a bad blue-ray player) list goes on...

But anyway...on subject...the jury will always be out until the launch actually happens. At that point these "forecasters" will be forgotten and nobody will remember to hold them responsible. However, it doesn't look good for the market leader.

Posted at 8:03PM on Jul 19th 2006 by Cage 0 stars

5. I personally dont think the price will be enough of a factor to make the Playstation brand go from first to third. Brand loyalty will ensure that a good number of units are sold because its playstation alone. Think about it, how many times have you gone into a story, and ignore other options simply because you are familiar with a certain brand, or have had a pleasant experience with one of their products? Even if 3 out of every 10 PS2 owners buys a PS3, that is easily 30 million units out of the door. With blu-ray, sony stands to make up their losses with both games AND movies.

Besides, if people really compared apples to apples the base model PS3 has more in it than the Premium Xbox360. These "analysts" always make bold claims about what will happen, only to try to make people forget what they said once they are proven to be wrong. The Tokyo Game Show will give the public a much better picture of what the state of the PS3 is, since its open to the public, and will be only a month before launch.

Posted at 8:27PM on Jul 19th 2006 by bobeotm 1 star

6. scott, your not taking into account the fact that your an idiot. the 5-600$ release price is just the prestige price that idiot turbo nerds who will wait in line over night are willing to pay. after a couple of months (maybe weeks) the price will drop to 4-500. sony isnt stupid, they know that they will sell every ps3 they can possible make for the first couple of weeks. once supply catches up with demand the price will drop.

anyone who actually pays 600 for a ps3 is an idiot. i wont even look at one till they are 300 for the good one.

Posted at 9:09PM on Jul 19th 2006 by naggs 0 stars

7. RE naggs:

"i wont even look at one till they are 300 for the good one."

Looks like you won't be seeing one for quite a while, buddy.

Posted at 11:21PM on Jul 19th 2006 by Chris 0 stars

8. No way Sony drops their pricing weeks or even months after release UNLESS sales are so bad they have no other choice. More likely, the intial price drop won't occur until about a year or so after release. They're not going to penalize early adopters by changing the pricing within the first year. That's just crazy. And they're certainly not going to pre-announce a price drop, because that would kill sales.

If anything, I'm more worried about having to purchase a bundle upon introduction. I hate when retailers force you to buy a game or controller with the base unit, even if you don't want what they're offering. How much you wanna bet the base system, completely by itself, will prove hard to find upon introduction? The first weeks or month, you'll probably find some insane pricing for the PS3 on ebay as well, which also sucks.

Posted at 12:31AM on Jul 20th 2006 by nick 0 stars

9. there was a brand loyalty comment in there... brand loyalty doesnt truly exist in the real market place. all things being equal coke will always be #1. but if they put their price up to double what pepsi charges *poof* brandloyalty is out the window. Now sony is not charging 2X MS but it is amplified at higher prices. At 1 dollar v 1.50 people will probably buy the one they like better. but at 400 v 600, and they are basically the same it becomes very questionable.

I honestly think that sony isnt interested in winning the console war. They want to win the next gen dvd war because that is overal more profitable for them. They just chose the consoles as a front of that war. They can lose the console battle but win the blu-ray war (and doing it this way will probably be cheaper in the long run)

Posted at 8:45AM on Jul 20th 2006 by Paul 1 star

10. Scott Krueger: "So if my math is correct, sony is only $100 more. Plus you get a BluRay Player. If you add a HD-DVD external drive to the 360 I'll bet that is going to be more than $100. OK now my 360 is getting more expensive than the PS3..."

YOu are very correct in your math but what the problem is with the regular consumer is that perception is reality meaning the Xbox 360 will always "seem" cheaper.

Posted at 8:55AM on Jul 20th 2006 by Bartender Sam 0 stars

11. people will not get the cheapo version. if you buy a mercedes are you going to get it with leather or cloth seats?

Posted at 2:06PM on Jul 20th 2006 by Paul 1 star

12. Hey Naggs.
If you actually read my Post, you would see my argument is in favor of Sony and the PS3. So at least I can read.
Also, I am not waiting inline because I have heard of the Turbo Nerd Hi Tech form of PREORDER.
I think the PS3 is a better deal than the 360 which I also own.
Read it again and see who is Stupid.

Cage, Who actually plays without a memory card or harddrive (besides Naggs, he couldn't read the package that says what the memory card does).

Posted at 7:05PM on Jul 23rd 2006 by Scott Krueger. 0 stars

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