PS3 Fanboy

April NPD sales are expected this Thursday, and analysts are ready to offer their key bits of insight. As usual, we cast much doubt on the accuracy of these sales predictions, especially when two of the largest sources offer conflicting reports. Wedbush Morgan's Michael Pachter has once again predicted a victory for PS3 over Xbox 360 this month (he incorrectly predicted a PS3 victory last month as well).

Pachter believes that PS3 will push 290k units, Xbox 360 275k, and the Wii will trounce on both with a whopping 600k. PS3 fans shouldn't rejoice too soon, however. simExchange, another group of analysts, predicts that Xbox 360 will sell 381k and PS3 will sell 363k.

With such contradictory numbers being thrown around, one has to wonder how analysts make these numbers, and why they continue to be relevant. Thursday's revelations of official NPD numbers should see which analyst wins the guessing game.

If you love guessing games as much as we do, can we recommend the title Analyst Butt Number Awesome Pull Fun Time Special Vol. 1? Michael Pachter, voice of Wedbush Morgan Securities analysts, has come out with another estimate of positive proportions for both Sony and GameStop, resulting from the $399 PS3 SKU. In addition to Halo 3 sales bolstering GameStop's bottom like, Pachter says the new PS3 is expecting to pull in a "20% comp in the January 2008 quarter ..." and the new PS3 "should drive a significant amount of traffic GameStop's way this holiday."

Spreading his cards out into April of 2008, Pachter sites big-hitter titles like FFXIII and LittleBigPlanet will assist in continued profits throughout 2008. Interestingly, Pachter is only citing Sony-based material for these continued profits after mentioning a possible 360 price cut to counter the rumored PS2 price cut. It's interesting, as each console has some pretty big titles landing in 2008, but for many gamers, eyes are on the PS3 to deliver a monolithic smattering of quality games.

It's time for another random guessing game by the people who get paid to randomly guess the current status of the video game console market! This time, the collective minds of six companies place their bets on the new 40GB PS3 and if the lowered price will make a dent in sales.

All six analysts agreed the new model would create an up-tick in console sales this holiday, but the degree of its effect varied. Michael Pachter said the drop may increase monthly sales by 50%, should a $399 price tag get tacked on. "We should expect sustainable sales of 225,000 units [for non-holiday months]. November is typically double the other months, so expect around 450,000 units, and December is typically double November, so expect around 900,000 units." The other analysts weren't as positive, but admitted there will be a small increase in sales.

An interesting discussion was held about whether the new price would deter people from buying a 360 or a Wii. Interestingly enough, most analysts conceded that the 360 would win this holiday battle with their strong lineup along with Halo 3 ... plus if people want a 360, they aren't just gonna change their mind and grab a PS3. As for the Wii, most analysts feel it's a supplementary console for hardcore gamers, but aimed at a broad audience. A lower PS3 should aim for becoming the other part of the equation instead of the 360 (PSWii opposed to Wii60). We don't have much to add, honestly. The analysts, as far as guessing games go, seem to be on the right track in our minds. What are your thoughts?

RPG references are fun in subject lines, unless nobody knows what you're talking about and you have to give them a hint in your first sentence. Anyway, Mr. Outspoken Analyst Man, Michael Pachter from Wedbush Morgan has apparently gotten his mitts on LittleBigPlanet and can't stop singing its praises.

He feels it will not only be a driving force for PS3 sales, but "after seeing LittleBigPlanet at TGS, I believe it could be a console mover ... The game is really innovative, and I think it adds a family element that is so far missing from both the Xbox 360 and the PS3. If they can accompany that game's launch with a price cut (or a lower priced SKU), I think we'll see a spike in sales."

He's in luck, as we're fairly sure we'll get a lower priced SKU at some point before the PS3's fiscal year ends (rumored to be sooner than you think). We've just got to remember, the console hasn't even been out for a year, hardly six months for some users across the world.