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Analysts playfully debate the impact of 40GB PS3

It's time for another random guessing game by the people who get paid to randomly guess the current status of the video game console market! This time, the collective minds of six companies place their bets on the new 40GB PS3 and if the lowered price will make a dent in sales.

All six analysts agreed the new model would create an up-tick in console sales this holiday, but the degree of its effect varied. Michael Pachter said the drop may increase monthly sales by 50%, should a $399 price tag get tacked on. "We should expect sustainable sales of 225,000 units [for non-holiday months]. November is typically double the other months, so expect around 450,000 units, and December is typically double November, so expect around 900,000 units." The other analysts weren't as positive, but admitted there will be a small increase in sales.

An interesting discussion was held about whether the new price would deter people from buying a 360 or a Wii. Interestingly enough, most analysts conceded that the 360 would win this holiday battle with their strong lineup along with Halo 3 ... plus if people want a 360, they aren't just gonna change their mind and grab a PS3. As for the Wii, most analysts feel it's a supplementary console for hardcore gamers, but aimed at a broad audience. A lower PS3 should aim for becoming the other part of the equation instead of the 360 (PSWii opposed to Wii60). We don't have much to add, honestly. The analysts, as far as guessing games go, seem to be on the right track in our minds. What are your thoughts?

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Reader Comments

(Page 1)

1. I would say the analysts are pretty much on the money this time. The new SKU will boost sales numbers for sure but there is no way that it will deter that Soccer mom from getting the Wii that her kids asked for. Most of the time the people who are at the store already have the console in mind that they want to buy before they get there. Now if Sony would get off their @sses and ADVERTISE THE PS3 then we might be onto something! I havent seen a PS3 commercial for months!

Posted at 6:48AM on Oct 12th 2007 by ShawnShady

2. Get Er Done!! Price Cut Anyone!!!

Posted at 7:52AM on Oct 12th 2007 by TRUTH

3. Well, I just can say a word about the european, to be more precise the german market. I know a lotta ppl, that'd love to buy a PS3, but hesitated due to the pricetag on it. Now, these times are over and with a BlueRay drive, a HD that can be replaced easily and HDMI this sexy, glossy black thing is a way better deal than M$s crapcrate

Posted at 8:11AM on Oct 12th 2007 by minimalniemand

4. And yet the M$ 'crapcrate' continues to outsell the PSwherearemygames.

Posted at 9:09AM on Oct 12th 2007 by Elliot J

5. I think all consoles will have great holiday sales. Who cares who "wins". The gamers are the true winners this holiday with the greatest gaming lineup in history.

Posted at 9:20AM on Oct 12th 2007 by Matt B

6. I think that it'll be the 360's holiday season this year but PS3's will be next holiday season. They will have a nice batch of exclusives and the price should be within the market sweet spot. The only way that Microsoft would be able to maintain the lead for the 08' holiday is if they got the price of the 360 at or below $250 and completely solved their hardware issues.

Posted at 9:31AM on Oct 12th 2007 by Josh

7. I hope the PS3 wins, at least against 360, since it will ensure a nice succession of exclusive games for the system. Though I have nothing against cross platformers on the basis on sharing, but too many poor ports have ruined my image of it.

I've already bought a PS3 and a PSP. All Sony can do now is help sell it to others and release more game titles for it with their massive in-house studios and third-party developers.

Posted at 9:52AM on Oct 12th 2007 by ruibing

8. I actually think it might affect the 360's sales a bit, since some people will expect M$ to follow suit and cut the price and so will hold off on buying one.

Posted at 10:02AM on Oct 12th 2007 by T-P-M

9. MS will dominate this holiday with their Bundles with 2 free games, PS3 will do better than they have with their $399 Spiderman 3/PS3 package and I still wont be able to find a Wii in Dallas

Next year is critical for the PS3 if those delayed games don't deliver it could be lights out, the price is there just gotta get more games, esp AAA games

Posted at 10:38AM on Oct 12th 2007 by rockinrodrigo

10. It's a PSWii Christmas for me.

Posted at 11:03AM on Oct 12th 2007 by FM

11. 2CentHolla You need to GET A LIFE & Stop TROLLING!

Posted at 12:05PM on Oct 12th 2007 by TRUTH

12. The only certainty with these analyst posts is that Michael Patcher is always the inverse of correct.

Posted at 12:44PM on Oct 12th 2007 by Ghaleon

13. Marlar,

I was thinking the same thing about 2cents....don't know if it's possible or not, though. ;)

Posted at 12:47PM on Oct 12th 2007 by Knight Marquise

14. @11: LMAO!! I love it!! you just made one of the biggest trolls on this site call you a troll (lookin at you TRUTH)..

@12: and when your done lickin 2cents nuts TRUTH, I got 2 more big fatties for you to suck on...

Posted at 1:17PM on Oct 12th 2007 by never$$hort

15. @16: Haven't seen you trolling in awhile.. Dam this article is infested, I'm out...

Posted at 1:19PM on Oct 12th 2007 by never$$hort

16. nevershort-

Wow, why am I not surprised your mentality level matches that of 2cent.

I come here occasionally for PS3 news because I'm going to have to pick up a PS3 prior to this BC gimped version hitting the US. BC being fairly important to me.
I don't play on the old xbox anymore, just the 360, when I pick up the PS3, the PS2 is going away as well. The level of rabid, vulgar, incoherant babbling posts from fanbots here never ceases to amaze me.

Quite frankly, it is posts like 2cents that should be deleted here for crudeness. I can't even imagine the level of disgust this blog would have were Sony actually beating MS & Nintendo this gen.

Posted at 1:34PM on Oct 12th 2007 by Knight Marquise

17. Are the analyst right? Since the 40Gb model was released the 60Gb started selling more. Now sitting at number 3 in the video games best selling chart for amazon uk.

Posted at 1:35PM on Oct 12th 2007 by GR

18. I think a $399 PS3 will sell a lot more than people think.

Lots of people are getting HDTVs this holiday season, and $399 is a really good price point for a Blu-Ray player with DVD upsampling, with audio/video file players, internet connections and last but not least PS3 games.

Posted at 4:14PM on Oct 12th 2007 by russ99a

19. "PSWii"..."Wii360"...

Can anyone say...PS360?!

Posted at 8:47PM on Oct 12th 2007 by WeHasFanboys

20. OK, look. I'm a dedicated Playstation fan, with a 60GB PS3. I do not own a XBox360. And I even just bought a PSP to go with my PS3.

But there is no way that PS3 sales are even going to come close to the XBox360 sales this Xmas season.

Come on - you've got two banner games for the 360: Halo 3 and Bioshock.

And there is now a decent bundle, the "Arcade" version, that comes with a wireless controller, memory card, and a couple of XBLA games. Only thing missing is a hard drive. All for $279.

When you've got soccer moms flockign to the Wii for $250 because it's what they understand and it's what the kids want...

And when you've got the 360 with the two really big headline games and you can get a good system for minimally more than the cost of a Wii ($280)...

Then you've got a 40GB PS3 for $399. With some good (hopefully great) games, yes, but no really big headline games this season. And no PS2 capability.

It's pretty clear to me that PS3 is going to stay in distant 3rd place this Xmas. Maybe even fall further behind.

Yes, I know the advantages of the PS3 (that's why I bought one, and convinced two of my friends to buy them as Blu-Ray players, even when one of them already has a 360 with HD-DVD).

But folks shopping for gaming consoles this holiday season, whether for themselves or for their kids, are going to get Wii's or 360's...

Again, I'm a real Sony fan, but I just don't see them doing the things in 2007 that will help them catch up from WAY behind....

Posted at 2:04PM on Oct 13th 2007 by Brad

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