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Analysts: PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 by 2009


One of our favorite aspects of covering the video game industry are analyst predictions. Oftentimes, they're entirely off base, but every now and then, they get things right. Hopefully, DFC Intelligence's new report will be spot on. The company released several reports predicting the PlayStation 3 will overtake the Xbox 360 in overall console sales due to a massive surge in the gaming industry in 2009.

While the research group doesn't believe the PS3 will move ahead of the Wii in total hardware numbers, it predicts the PS3 will generate more software revenue than Nintendo's console by 2012. "We could have a situation where the Wii sells more hardware units, but by 2012 the PlayStation 3 is generating more software revenue," said David Cole, a DFC analyst.

However, this isn't the first time a research group has predicted Sony's dominance early next decade. With so many analysts coming together saying the same thing, one of them is bound to be right ... right? Let's just hope they're not all looking at the same report!

[Via IGN]

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Reader Comments

(Page 1)

1. Here's to Dreaming!!

Posted at 11:15AM on Sep 19th 2007 by TRUTH

2. QUE the XBOTS to come troll this thread! *looks at watch* I give them about ehhhhh ten or so minutes until they flood this thread with "Oh that's Bullshit! PS3 Sucks Halo this and that blah blah blah!!" Personally... Xbots.. change out your tampons and relax.. EVERYTHING WILL BE OK!! LMAO

Posted at 11:36AM on Sep 19th 2007 by Byron517

3. I swear these 360 fans come to this site more frequently than us! How in the world do they always get the first few posts?

The PS3 will be evenly matched in the holiday seasons after the rest of the 2007 games get released with 360. Then in 2008, the only thing the 360 has to combat MGS4, FFXIII, LittleBigPlanet, and more is Ninja Gaiden 2, which I'm sure the Microsoft advertisement team will hype up again.

Posted at 11:41AM on Sep 19th 2007 by ruibing

4. LLLLLMMMMMMMMMMMMMAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

Seriously thats not even worthy of what you guys are expecting...

Posted at 11:41AM on Sep 19th 2007 by NeoAngelicPrince

5. look! am an analyst!
sony is selling and will keep selling ps3 and they will sell console for christmas too!

Posted at 11:42AM on Sep 19th 2007 by coplice

6. It's inevitable. Over time, devkits will improve, more consoles will be sold, people will tire of the waggle console (and all 3 of its first party games), and we'll see Sony continue its dominance.

Anyone who says otherwise must be 12 years old, because they haven't lived to see Sony do this twice already with PS1 and PS2. Despite strong competition, they just have a better console and are positioned well in the market. MS will _never_ get the critical Japanese developers on their side. Japanese xenophobia FTW.

Posted at 11:42AM on Sep 19th 2007 by Popfrogs

7. Not a chance. @ 2 (Byron517), your overly aggressive defensive position is no worse than "XBOTS" coming on here and giving our opinion.

It's funny that every month we see weak sales on the PS3 and strong sales on the Xbox 360. At some point next year the Xbox 360 Premium system will drop to $299, then Xbox 720 will release for holiday 2010. What will Sony do then? It's obvious that we will not see PS4 until maybe 2014 at the earliest. Then what? Face it, MS has won the "Next Generation" and will continue to lead the way being first to market with each subsequent system.

Posted at 11:59AM on Sep 19th 2007 by Matt

8. @7, Wow, you're incredibly intelligent. Where did you gain such insight???

Ever heard of market shifts? The PS2 was STILL OUTSELLING the 360 up until recently. Oh, don't worry, I fully admit that Sony made some big mistakes. I still plan on getting a 360 at some point. I don't choose "sides".

MS has definitely improved their console, but its clear that theres no winner in the next gen wars. That kind of thing is decided at the END of the generation, not the beginning.

Theres a reason why the PS3 costs so much. It has had ridiculous amounts of research put into it, and I believe that was a mistake. But it also means, its going to take time for developers to learn its inner workings. Which also means, games will get better and prettier. Sony has been a haven for us jRPG fans, and it will continue this trend.

BTW, you must be Nostradamus, predicting the 720 and PS4 release dates? Wow.

Posted at 12:12PM on Sep 19th 2007 by wicko

9. funny you guys posted this "prediction" but never bothered to post the recent NPD sales data...

Posted at 12:18PM on Sep 19th 2007 by Xavier

10. If you don't want "Xbots" coming here then quit writing these stupid "Analysts: PS3 will overtake Xbox 360 by (Enter Date Here)".

Simple as that.

Posted at 12:23PM on Sep 19th 2007 by x silence x

11. @7

I assume you're talking about here and not Japan, right? Since MS is definitely NOT winning the next gen war there. Technically, Nintendo is beating everyone's ass and, technically, Sony sold 100K more units than MS this last quarter in the US if you count the PSP and PS2.

So to clarify your statement for you, the PS3 is losing to Xbox360 in US, for now. And, you know what, you're right. I'm all for calling the PS3 a loser, when it applies, but you really need to qualify your statements as opposed to posting blatant fanboy babble.

Posted at 12:26PM on Sep 19th 2007 by jtspanky

12. @ 7

Being first does not necessarily mean being best. 20-30% hardware failure rate? You're pretty much guaranteeing that new customers will shy away from Microsoft in the future for not only careless construction but poor customer service. Why not fix the problem instead of making your user base send in systems for repair numerous times or making them buy new systems altogether?

Now onto the topic at hand:

I hope they're right. I see no reason why the PS3 will eventually overtake the 360 on console sales. Faulty systems = weary consumers. Once the games come out, why not go for something more reliable? Once the user base grows, you'll have more games for more age groups that play better than the tired twitching that is Wii gameplay.

Posted at 12:30PM on Sep 19th 2007 by RPG

13. the 'xholes' are just cranky cause they had nightmares of the red ring and free online play last night. They just want to get some trash talk in because they know deep down that Sony has the superior hardware. booo friggin hoo!

Posted at 1:07PM on Sep 19th 2007 by thedude81

14. I would like to simply point out that even Lair is more reliable then a 360. Try to remember that Lair's controls work 80% of the time, and the 360s currently only work 66% of the time. Yet everyone doesn't complain about the 360, and in fact almost 9 million of them have been sold... why is that.

Posted at 1:14PM on Sep 19th 2007 by comtar

15. Don't worry guys, just post your analyst research/predictions/wet dreams after the 25th. Then we'll have a generation defining, mind bending experience known as Halo 3 to occupy our time, and you'll have your next gen obviously technically superior technology super expensive super ultra blu ray spectacular... blog. Cheers!

Posted at 1:28PM on Sep 19th 2007 by Eddie

16. @25

Shouldn't you concern yourself more with bidding for that cool Halo 3 costume for the launch party instead of reading up on these "false" PS3 predictions? If the 360 is so great, go use it! When my PSP comes and when I get home to use my PS3, I won't be visting this site for awhile.

Posted at 1:35PM on Sep 19th 2007 by ruibing

17. @12, MS fully admitted there were problems and have since fixed it, as well as announcing a 3 year warranty to cover every system out there. I say that is fixing the problem and taking care of your customers. Plus, your point no longer holds water because 400,000 Xbox 360 units sold last month. That proves that the recent MS announcements regarding the problem and subsequent warranty extension has had no effect on future customers. If anything, the 3 year extension has given people confidence and set aside any concerns they may have had about defective systems.

@8 (wicko), just wait my friend. Mark my words on those dates. I may be off a year one way or another, but just wait. Based on recent history, what makes you think I'm so off? What does everyone else think regarding the next hardware release dates? I think holiday 2010 is a very realistic date for the next Xbox system. Based on Sony's own statements regarding their 10 year plan with PS3, I think 2013-2014 is very realistic for PS4. And yes, I know that doesn't mean 10 years from the release of PS3. It means they have the same long terms plans with PS3 as they are currently having with PS2.

Posted at 1:47PM on Sep 19th 2007 by Matt

18. the 720 to me will sound like a 360 1.5(certanly at that time the 720 wont double the power of the 360 and wont look twice as good as the final years of the 360) why bother if the graphics of the PS3 is going to rise that high, why bother buying the 720 which most likely be over $400 meen while the PS3 would be pushing at maybe $300 dollars or less. Would devs really bother creating games like crysis every single time by that time when that happens and people care to generate games of that kind the PS4 would be out. they should turn the 720 into some kind of high end gaming PC and get out of the console business. IT actually looks like they're trying to, so that's why there moving LIVE and LIVE Arcade to the PC.

Posted at 1:49PM on Sep 19th 2007 by MYPS3KilledMy360

19. PS2 sales beating Xbox 360 is a stupid comparison. Lol are you seriously still playing your PS2? If you are boy are you missing out on some good "next-gen" games. XBLM has relationships with Fox, Disney, WGN, Comedy Central, MTV, etc. Why? Well because of the cosumers that are driving the Xbox 360. Those are the TRUE analyst major corporations that are putting their money name and on the Xbox 360 console.

PS3 fans trust in what is happening right NOW, not on 2-4 year predictions. You're missing out on great titles, great online multiplayer, and a huge gaming community that is only on the Xbox 360. It's like you deprive yourself on what is currently the best system, just because you still hold PS2 to your near hearts as true work of art (which it was), but these are new times. Flame me all you want, I'm just an experienced gamer giving some insight ;)

Posted at 1:50PM on Sep 19th 2007 by TORO

20. This site IS called fanboy so I don't know why I ask but... Why does this prediction matter? People this generation act as if they had loads of stock in either company. Just play the games people.

I think the 360 will already be on its death bed by 2012 anyways.

Posted at 1:53PM on Sep 19th 2007 by hiiro

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